LOCALIZE IT: Updated analysis sheds light on enrollment in US public, private and home schools

After enrollment plunged in American public schools during the COVID-19 pandemic, an analysis published in February by The Associated Press found an estimated 230,000 students in 21 states who were still missing from school. These students didn’t move out of state, and they didn’t sign up for private school or homeschool.

 

The AP is updating its analysis to reflect data that is now available from the 2022-2023 school year. With the new numbers, the estimate for the number of missing students is now around 50,000. While on-the-ground reporting shows missing students scattered around the country, the estimate shows they are concentrated in three states: California, New York and Louisiana.

 

The update shows the education system has moved closer to a post-pandemic equilibrium. However, it hardly means schooling is back to how it was before. The education system still shows the signs of seismic changes, as more families question the value of a public education, and both private and homeschooling remain much higher than pre-pandemic levels.

 

The data being made available here includes all publicly available data on private, homeschool and public school enrollment, pre- and post-pandemic. There are several ways reporters can use this data to pursue stories about the changing face of education.

 

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READ AP’S COVERAGE

 

These kids want to go to school. The main obstacle? Paperwork

 

Many kids are still skipping kindergarten. Since the pandemic, some parents don’t see the point

 

Thousands of kids are missing from school. Where did they go?

 

Diplomas for sale: $465, no classes required. Inside one of Louisiana’s unapproved schools

 

At 15, he is defending his home – and struggling to stay in school

 

Millions of kids are missing weeks of school as attendance tanks across the US

 

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THE DATA

 

The full data analysis with links to the raw data is available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1b0-FOgx4n_gQnaol09poimhdpdVIeYsr/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=107434169887696282834&rtpof=true&sd=true

 

The estimate for the number of missing kids reflects absences from school that cannot be explained by demographic changes or the growth of private and homeschooling. It was calculated by adding up all the changes in homeschool, private and public enrollment, then subtracting the change in school-aged population according to census estimates. If this formula produced a negative number for a state, it meant children were missing, while a positive number indicated there were more students in the state than expected (possibly due to undercounting of the school-aged population in the census or a high number of out-of-state students in private schools).

 

The data set includes private school and homeschool enrollment numbers for over 30 states for school years 2019-20 to 2022-23, public school enrollment totals in 49 states plus Washington, D.C., (missing 2022/23 for Tennessee), and estimates for the number of children aged 5-17 in every state plus Washington, D.C.

 

It also includes the number of students enrolled in public schools in each state broken down by grade level.

 

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KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE DATA ANALYSIS

 

The estimate of the number of missing kids has shrunk considerably. We calculated an estimated 230,000 students were missing as of 2021-22, but by the next school year this estimate was down to under 50,000 missing kids. That analysis includes the 22 states plus Washington, D.C., that had complete private, public and homeschool data.

 

Private schooling grew 7.8%, adding 268,000 more students from 2019/20 to 2022/23. This is based on the 34 states plus D.C. that had K-12 private school data available.

 

States with highest growth in private school enrollment:

 

TENNESSEE (+39%)

 

RHODE ISLAND (+28%)

 

WASHINGTON (+26%)

 

TEXAS (+23%)

 

NORTH CAROLINA (+22%)

 

Homeschooling has grown 26.9%, adding around 209,000 more students. This is based on 31 states, plus Washington, D.C., that had useable data. Some of these states do not require families to give notification they are homeschooling, so some of the figures are likely undercounts.

 

States with highest growth in homeschool enrollment:

 

SOUTH DAKOTA (+71%)

 

KENTUCKY (+61%)

 

NEW YORK (+57%)

 

SOUTH CAROLINA (+55%)

 

MAINE (+49%)

 

The states with the highest overall growth in private and homeschool enrollment combined:

 

TENNESSEE (+36%)

 

RHODE ISLAND (+30%)

 

WASHINGTON (+30%)

 

SOUTH CAROLINA (+28%)

 

FLORIDA (+20%)

 

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TAKE YOUR REPORTING FURTHER

 

As students have returned from the pandemic-era school closures, some districts’ policies may make it harder for parents to enroll their children in school. In Atlanta Public Schools, for example, parents have to submit eight or more documents — twice as many as required in New York City or Los Angeles. Parents there have to resubmit their residency proof every year and the burden of proof is higher for renters in the district, since principals can ask them for more evidence that they live where they say they do.

 

The increased bureaucracy is an effort to prevent students from attending schools outside of their attendance zones or district. In a spot scan of districts around the country, The Associated Press found that these practices are very common in Georgia, but also taking hold in Massachusetts, Texas and other states around the South.

 

The AP found that these policies were so burdensome they were stopping some parents in Atlanta from enrolling their children in school altogether. Is that happening in your district? Things to look for include requirements for notarized documents; requirements to submit residency documents every year; different enrollment requirements at different schools within the same district; principal discretion for evaluating documents; and more scrutiny for parents claiming to be homeless or doubled up.

 

Other questions to consider:

 

— How much has nonpublic schooling grown in popularity in your state? What factors drive parents towards this type of education? Does your state offer vouchers or Education Savings Accounts that help move public money toward a private system?

 

— Families of kids with disabilities often struggle to get adequate services for their child in the public school system or even to ensure their child’s safety. These pressures may contribute to some kids going missing from school, and others turning to private- or homeschooling. What do alternative education models offer to this type of family and what does it say about how kids with disabilities are treated in the public school system?

 

— How much oversight is there of private or homeschools in your state? Are there any requirements about who is qualified to teach or what subjects to teach? What safeguards exist for children to prevent potential exploitation, fraud, or abuse? You can find more information about private and homeschool laws in each state online through the federal Department of Education, the Home School Legal Defense Association or the Coalition for Responsible Home Education.

 

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Localize It is an occasional feature produced by The Associated Press for its customers’ use. Questions can be directed to Katie Oyan at koyan@ap.org.